The French real estate market went through a pivotal year in 2024, marked by a historic decline in transaction volumes. With approximately 775,000 transactions recorded over the year, a decrease of 11% compared to 2023 according to Fnaim, the market hit its lowest point in several years.
This decline represents a contraction of 36% compared to the peak in 2021. The available data paints a fragmented landscape, where the recovery that began in the second half of 2024 does not affect all regions equally.
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Thermal sieves and DPE: the hidden driver of transactions in 2024
Content dedicated to real estate news in 2024 focuses on credit rates and price trends. One structural factor remains under-analyzed: the regulatory pressure related to the energy performance diagnosis (DPE). Since the ban on renting out properties classified as G consuming more than 450 kWh/m²/year, which came into effect on January 1, 2023, owners of poorly rated properties are accelerating their sales.
The schedule for the gradual exit from the rental market for classes F and G has been partially rearranged, without being canceled. This regulatory uncertainty has pushed many landlords to sell rather than undertake costly renovation work, increasing the supply in the old market. The affected properties are negotiating with a significant discount, which pulls average prices down in certain segments.
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The effect varies depending on the type of property. Studios and small rental units, often less well insulated, are the first to be affected. Individual houses in rural areas, where the cost of renovation per square meter remains more moderate, experience a less pronounced discount.
Co-ownerships, on the other hand, face voting constraints in general assemblies that slow down collective work. To track these developments by segment and region, the Web Portail immo site aggregates listings and real estate market data at the local level.
Two-speed recovery: Paris, metropolitan areas, and rural zones facing the real estate market 2024-2026
The second half of 2024 marked a stabilization of sales volumes after eighteen months of continuous decline. Fnaim notes that a low plateau seems to have been reached. However, this national stabilization masks very different realities depending on the regions.
The MeilleursAgents and SeLoger barometers confirm an uneven recovery in 2026. Paris has started to rise again, with approximately +2% since March 2024, while the national price index continues to decline slightly. Rural areas show one of the strongest increases, with +3.2% since the beginning of 2026. In contrast, many large urban areas remain in correction.
Several factors explain this divergence:
- In Paris, the scarcity of supply and the partial return of foreign investors support prices, despite volumes still being down compared to 2021.
- Rural areas benefit from a demand shift that began during the pandemic and has been reinforced by the continuation of partial remote work in many companies.
- Large regional metropolises (Bordeaux, Lyon, Toulouse) are experiencing a correction effect after years of rapid growth, combined with more pronounced declines in activity in the southwest, where Fnaim reports contractions ranging from 18% to 30% in certain departments like Gironde or Haute-Garonne.
Mortgage rates and access to property: what 2024 has changed for buyers
The rise in interest rates initiated by central banks has directly impacted the cost of mortgage credit in 2024. Stricter financing conditions have reduced households’ borrowing capacity, excluding some potential buyers, particularly first-time buyers.
Data collected by iad France indicates a notable aging of first-time buyers: nearly half are now between 36 and 45 years old. Later access to property reflects the growing difficulty in gathering sufficient personal contributions in a context of still high prices, despite the initiated decline.
The gradual decrease in credit rates in the second half of 2024, however, constituted a positive signal. First-time buyers were among the first to benefit from this easing, contributing to the stabilization of volumes observed at the end of the year. The iad study also notes that about 60% of buyers say they are willing to make geographical concessions to access property, expanding their search area beyond their initial employment basin.
Real estate situation in metropolitan France: the limits of 2025 projections
Fnaim estimates that an improvement is on the horizon for 2025, driven by the continued decline in rates.
These projections have limits. The market remains exposed to several uncertainties: the actual evolution of the DPE schedule, the trajectory of key rates, and the employment situation. Fnaim emphasizes that the employment front and business failures remain variables to monitor to anticipate the strength of demand.
The observed recovery mainly concerns volumes. Regarding prices, field returns diverge depending on segments and regions. A sustainable return to 2021 levels, both in volume and price, is not consensus among market observers. The most likely scenario remains one of gradual normalization, with persistent geographical disparities between Paris, regional metropolises, and rural areas.